Immigration to the EU and challenges for demographic modelling

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JEL classification

• Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
• Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
• Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

Keywords

demographic projection, European Union, immigration, Lee‒Carter method

Abstract

The aim of the paper is twofold: first to discuss the current immigration wave to the European Union and second to foresee the impacts of this wave on demographic modelling tools. Demographic modelling has been developing from the component method through expert estimations and expectations to become the most sophisticated Lee‒Carter models so far based on principal component analysis and stochastic modelling, modified gravity models or human capital models. However, unlike expert estimations, all the models are based on historical data and thus are not able to take into account unusual situations such as the recent immigration crisis. The paper describes the immigration to four terminal countries for immigrants in the EU ‒ France, Belgium, Germany and Italy ‒ and applies the Lee‒Carter method to project the migration process in those countries. Due to a weak database, the projection of the immigration process is made only for the years 2015 and 2016 (at present still unknown). The results show a multiple increase in the immigration profiles, which will affect the current age- and sex-specific structures of the analysed populations.